Player props can be useful in a variety of ways — from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player’s potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we’re going to focus on the former.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Bets
LaMelo Ball Over 25.5 Points (-120)
Since officially coming off of an ankle injury-based minutes restriction, LaMelo Ball has been living up to his last name.
He’s averaging a towering 31.4 points on 36.6 minutes over this seven-game span, and I don’t see why he can’t get at least 26 in tonight’s game against the Boston Celtics.
Although Boston has the best defensive rating in basketball, they could be slowed down tonight, as this road game will be the second of back-to-back games for them.
The Celtics allow the fourth-most three-point attempts (3PA) to guards per 36 minutes, and Ball scores 41.0% of his points from behind the arc. He scored 24 points from downtown alone in his last game, so Boston’s propensity to allow opponents to fire off this shot at a high rate could bring Ball far tonight.
In three games against Boston last season, Ball averaged 26.7 points.
There’s a high blowout potential with this game. The Celtics’ 11-3 record is the best in the NBA, while the Charlotte Hornets‘ 3-9 record is one of the worst. But this shouldn’t affect Ball’s production. The Hornets lost their most recent game by 14 points and the game before by 31 points, but Ball still played 35 and 36 minutes in each.
James Harden Over 17.5 Points (-113)
The Los Angeles Clippers took the first step at fixing their offense last Friday, and it resulted in the first Clips win of the James Harden-era. The Beard scored 24 points in this game and was granted more scoring and ball-handling opportunities with Russell Westbrook on the bench.
Given this change, Harden’s point line is set too low tonight, especially against the lowest-ranked defensive team in basketball, the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs give up more points than any other team in the league. They allow the second-most three-point makes, and Harden scores 36.4% of his points from downtown.
San Antonio also lets up the sixth-most free-throw attempts (FTA) and ninth-most points in the paint to guards per 36 minutes, and Harden scores 47.4% of his points from these areas.
The matchup is great, and the Clippers’ 119.5 implied team total should afford a scorer of Harden’s caliber to get 18-plus points tonight, but it can’t be understated how much Westbrook’s time on the bench aids Harden in the scoring department.
Harden is averaging 10.0 points per 36 minutes with Westbrook on the court, and 25.6 points per 36 minutes with him off the court.
Jalen Green Over 7.5 Reb + Ast (+112)
Green is averaging 7.6 RA going into tonight and has cleared this prop in three straight games. He’ll go up against the Golden State Warriors, a team whom he already recorded 10 RA against earlier this season.
That game ended in a 106-95 Warriors victory. The low game total in this instance is encouraging given how this ended up turning out for Green on the stat sheet. Tonight’s 220.0 game total should help him buff up his assist line a bit more, especially since his potential assists per game (6.1) is quite lower than his actual assists per game (2.9).
Golden State allows the 13th-most rebounds to guards per 36 minutes and should be a decent match for Green to continue his eight-plus RA streak.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.