The New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season ranking No. 3 (Minnesota) and No. 5 (New York) in defensive rating.
They are also elite rebounding teams, with the Knicks leading the NBA in rebounding percentage this season.
That can make it tough in the prop market for bettors, especially since a low-scoring game would make it tough for a lot of scoring OVERs to hit. However, I have three Knicks-centric props that you should consider betting in this matchup.
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Jalen Brunson OVER 23.5 points
Jalen Brunson is going OFF lately for the Knicks, so I am shocked to see his points prop all the way down at 23.5 – even against an elite defense.
Brunson has back-to-back 32-point games, and he’s scored 24 or more points in five of his last six matchups.
Brunson is getting a ton of shots up, taking 19 or more shots in each of the games where he cleared this number. It’s hard to ask for much more when looking at a points prop in the low 20s, and Brunson has also hit the 3 at a crazy rate – shooting 47.7 percent from beyond the arc this season.
I love taking the Knicks point guard at this number regardless of the defense the team is facing.
Mitchell Robinson OVER 8.5 rebounds
This prop is way too low for Mitchell Robinson, who is the best offensive rebounder in the NBA.
Offensive Rebounds per 100 possessions this season:
Nuggets: 10.5
Cavs: 10.4
Pelicans: 10.3
MITCHELL ROBINSON: 10.1
Rockets: 9.9
Mavs: 9.7
Wolves: 9.6
Pacers: 9.5
Heat: 9.4
Spurs: 9.2
Wizards: 8.3
Lakers: 7.9
Bucks: 7.6
Thunder: 6.8 pic.twitter.com/vpew84zwAg— Tommy Beer (@TommyBeer) November 19, 2023
Robinson has picked up nine or more boards in nine of his 13 games this season, and the Knicks will need him on the glass against Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Normally, Robinson’s prop is closer to 10.5, so this is a solid value on Monday.
Rudy Gobert UNDER 11.5 points
I’m fading Timberwolves center Gobert in this matchup against Robinson, who we just noted has been great for New York both on the glass and defensively this season.
Robinson is one of the few bigs that has the size to deal with Gobert, and the Jazz center only has one game over 11.5 points in his last five. The Knicks also allow the fourth fewest points in the paint in the NBA this season.
Gobert only scores in the paint – so that’s a good sign for the UNDER hitting.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
