While Jalen Hurts hasn’t been putting up insane running numbers like he has in past years, this Super Bowl rematch may be the perfect opportunity for a signature game on the ground. Find out why in our best Jalne Hurts prop picks below.
In a Super Bowl rematch, the Kansas City Chiefs have the Philadelphia Eagles coming to Arrowhead Stadium to close out the Week 11 odds in what could be one of the best games of the year between the current favorite in the AFC and NFC.
While Taylor Swift may be the biggest star mentioned throughout the broadcast, the Eagles taking flight under the Nick Sirianni regiment has everything to do with their star under center shaking off early career criticism and blossoming into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Jalen Hurts is poised to take the “Brotherly Shove” platinum under the Monday night lights and exploit one of the few weaknesses on Kansas City’s defense.
Jalen Hurts MNF prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jalen Hurts MNF prop pick
Over 36.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season. They’re limiting teams to just 288.2 yards per game, fourth best in the NFL, and 15.9 points per game, the best mark in the league.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s aggressive front is third in the NFL in sacks (31) and holding opposing quarterbacks to an 84.5 rating.
This pass defense is tremendous and sets up well against a Philadelphia Eagles passing game that’s 10th in the league in yards per game (247.1) and led by Hurts, who sits sixth in EPA per play among quarterbacks, second in CPOE, and fifth in air yards.
It’s a clash of titans, but this Chiefs defense is no joke — fourth in EPA per play and second in EPA per dropback — and Hurts and offensive coordinator Brian Johnson can find their mismatches in the run game.
Despite the Chiefs’ dominance on defense this season, they’ve struggled at times to stop the ground attack. They’re second last in the NFL in EPA per rush and while they’re only allowing 112.2 rushing yards per game, they’ve allowed 4.6 per carry, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL.
Against a quarterback like Hurts behind an offensive line as physically imposing as what the Eagles bring to the table, the Chiefs — who are still without star linebacker Nick Bolton — are going to have a tough matchup slowing this run game.
Not only does Hurts get a little extra pop to his rushing numbers with the frequency in which Philadelphia runs the “Brotherly Shove,” but he’s been the third leading rusher among quarterbacks this season with 316 rushing yards in nine games. He also has the fourth-highest rushing value among quarterbacks this season, according to QBR.
While the former Oklahoma star hasn’t been putting up the same rushing numbers as he has in past seasons, he’s still averaging 35.1 rushing yards per game and he’s on pace to have a career-high 166 carries this season.
Hurts is averaging nearly 10 carries per game (9.7) and has only had one game this season where he’s finished with less than eight carries. The main concern here is that he’s only gone Over 36.5 rushing yards three times in nine games, but with this matchup, the Eagles’ game plan will likely ask more of Hurts’ legs.
In his career, Hurts is averaging 41 rushing yards per game and has had at least 37 rushing yards in 26 of his 43 starts (60%) and while Kansas City hasn’t faced a ton of mobile passers, they’ve shown signs of issues slowing them. Justin Fields had a 47-yard rushing performance against them earlier this year and Russell Wilson had 61 rushing yards over two games against them.
Few quarterbacks in the NFL can open a game up the way Hurts can and his legs will be the key to Philadelphia lulling Kansas City’s secondary to sleep in hopes of setting up big plays over the top to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Prop: Over 36.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Jalen Hurts MNF same-game parlay
If the Eagles get near the goal line, everybody in the NFL knows what’s coming, but it doesn’t matter, because they can’t stop the Brotherly Shove. With that in mind and knowing Hurts’ legs will be paramount to victory, a rushing touchdown goes hand in hand with the Over on his rushing line.
Even with his rushing yards slightly down this season, Hurts has scored seven rushing touchdowns in nine games. It’s like clockwork when the Eagles get near the end zone, he’s treated like their goal line back and he’s as effective in short yardage as anybody in recent memory.
In his career, Hurts has 33 rushing touchdowns in 43 starts and has scored at least one in 22 games. This season, he’s scored at least one in six of nine games.
Hurts scoring feels like a constant in Eagles games, as does A.J. Brown getting loose in the secondary. The two-time Pro Bowler is second in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,005 and has been on an absolute tear since Week 3.
In his last seven games, he’s gone over 100 receiving yards six times and on the season, he’s averaging well over his 84.5-yard line for this one with 111.7 per game.
He and Hurts have been in lockstep all year with the star receiver seeing 10.2 targets per game and having gone for 897 yards since Week 3 — 128.1 per game.
This tandem is going to give a strong Chiefs secondary all they can handle, especially with Smith flanking them.
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