It’s everyone’s favorite year-end in-state rivalry game — the Egg Bowl between Mississippi and Mississippi State. Both teams have plenty to play before and our college football betting picks expect both offenses to look scrambled all night long.
While most football fans will be locked into the NFL this Thanksgiving, the best tradition on Thursday happens in college. That is, of course, the Egg Bowl which sees the Mississippi Rebels take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
This year, the in-state rivals do battle in Starkville in what is still a very important game for both teams. The Rebels still have an outside shot at a New Year’s Six Bowl game, while the Bulldogs need another victory to become bowl-eligible.
Mississippi is also motivated to take back the Golden Egg after allowing State to snatch a 24-22 victory in Oxford last year.
This time around the Rebels are double-digit road favorites. Can they cover the big number or is that too much chalk for this rivalry game?
Mississippi vs Mississippi State best odds
Mississippi vs Mississippi State picks and predictions
These SEC rivals first faced off in 1901 and have been battling for the Golden Egg since 1927. Mississippi State won the trophy last season and now Lane Kiffin and the Mississippi Rebels want it back. Badly.
Mississippi is having another solid year. The Rebels sit at 9-2 heading into this rivalry matchup, but it’s clear they are still a step below the upper echelon of SEC teams with their losses coming against Alabama and Georgia. So, a win over their rival would go a long way.
Meanwhile, it’s been a bit of a rocky season in Starkville. Mississippi State is just 1-6 in SEC play and the one win was a 7-3 dud against Arkansas. The team then dismissed its first-year head coach Zach Arnett after a 51-10 loss at Texas A&M on Nov. 11.
It’s up to interim head coach Greg Knox to get the Bulldogs one more win and bowl eligible for the 14th straight season. But that will be easier said than done.
You can make the case that the Bulldogs were without quarterback Will Rogers for four games. And Mississippi State scored just 33 points in his absence. But honestly. Rogers wasn’t playing all that well before the injury.
Rogers was completing just 59.6% of his passes during his first six games and had more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (two) in the three SEC games he did play in. And in his return vs. Southern Miss, he completed just 44% of his passes.
On Thursday, he’ll face a Mississippi defensive front that loves to pressure the quarterback. The Rebels rank 17th in sack rate and as a result of that pressure, they rank 41st in EPA/dropback. They are also limiting opponents to less than four yards per carry.
Now, I think Jaxson Dart and this Mississippi offense have too many weapons for Mississippi State to contain and will win the game at the end of the day. But these Egg bowls are always wild and weird. The Bulldogs don’t have a great defense but they’re not terrible either, ranking 57th in opponent yards per play.
In a game where the Bulldogs not just have a rivalry but a bowl game on the line, that should be enough to keep this one below the total.
My best bet: Under 55.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State same-game parlay
As always, our same-game parlay starts off with my best bet, which for the Egg Bowl is the Under 55.5. But just because I like the game to fall below the number, doesn’t mean we won’t see some scoring in this one.
As noted, I think Jaxson Dart enters this game playing well, and has enough weapons that will make slowing down this Rebels offense a problem at times.
Now, the Bulldogs don’t give up a ton of big plays, but they give up a lot underneath and rank 131st in opponent completion percentage. With Dart having his full compliment of receivers in Tre Harris, Dayton Wade, and Jordan Watkins at his disposal in this one, the word of the day may be YAC. That will help Dart eclipse his passing yard prop of 243.5.
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Mississippi vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis
This year’s edition of the Egg Bowl has already seen some crazy line movement. I’ve seen this line open with Mississippi anywhere between 10.5 and 13.5-point favorites. However, there seemed to be a consensus at one point and the line spent most of Monday sitting in about the middle at 12.5. But since then, there was some strong action on Mississippi State and the line has dropped to 10.5 as of writing this.
Like I said, before, these Egg Bowls are always weird and close. Five of the last six meetings have been within 10 points. Plus, Mississippi State is at home and has a bowl game on the line. So, it’s not a surprise that early bettors jumped on those big numbers.
That said, if the spread drops to 10, I would consider the Rebels. QB Jaxson Dart is playing well, and Quinshon Judkins gives this offense balance. Overall, they rank 13th in yards per play and will have a good chance to pull away late.
When it comes to the total, it hit the board at 56 and has been bet down slightly to 55.5. I broke down above why I like the Under. Simply put, Mississippi State’s struggles on offense combined with the close nature of these rivalry games has me thinking this number is too high.
Mississippi vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Under is 9-1 in the last 10 Egg Bowls. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Mississippi State.
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Mississippi vs Mississippi State game info
|Location:||Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS|
|Date:||Thursday, November 23, 2023|
|Kickoff:||7:30 p.m. ET|
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