For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 33-19-1 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for Thursday.
Thursday’s Best NBA Bets
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Charlotte Hornets vs. Detroit Pistons
It has now been eight consecutive games that the Charlotte Hornets have gone Under the point total, and we don’t foresee that streak breaking Thursday night. The streak is notable because of its duration and (more pertinently) the degree to which they’ve gone Under.
Charlotte has played these last four games without G LaMelo Ball (ankle), who is by far their most productive offensive player (and a liability on the defensive end). In his absence, they’ve gone Under by an average of greater than 20 points and rate dead last in Offensive Pts/Poss. Additionally, Charlotte’s defense has shown significant signs of improvement on the current eight game streak, grading out as the NBA’s no.1 defense over the same span. For greater context, the Hornets rate 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rating on the season, and such an improvement is a chief reason why Charlotte continues to play in low scoring games.
As for Detroit, their injury report remains debilitating, and their current rotation is possibly the worst in the NBA. None of their available players rate positively on offense (see here for 538’s RAPTOR Player Ratings), and may very well be a scoring struggle for Detroit.
Bet: Under 234.5 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors’ road woes are glaring, and it remains surprising to see them favored in this spot. Golden State is an abysmal 9-23 ATS and 7-25 SU when playing away from home, and their Pts/Poss differential plummets from 6th to 25th with the change in venue. The main issue for the Warriors has been on the defensive end, as their Net Defensive Rating on the road is better than only Houston and San Antonio. The inexplicable drop in defensive efficiency is a key reason to like Memphis here, as they should be able to make up for G Ja Morant’s absence via the Warriors own deficiencies.
Additionally, the Grizz are among the best home teams in the NBA. Their 26-5 record at home trails only Denver, and their 19-11-1 record ATS is tremendous. Any hesitations in backing Memphis with them without Morant and with C Steven Adams remaining sidelined are reasonable, but the team’s depth is being undervalued here, and they have the personnel capable of giving Golden State fits on the defensive end. It’s been a rough stretch of games for Memphis (to say the least), but they should be able to regain their rhythm on their home floor. Bet the Grizz to cover the short spread.
Bet: Grizzlies +2 (-110)
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