DeJounte Murray faces a tough matchup against the Heat, making the Under on his points prop appealing. Elsewhere in our NBA player prop picks for Monday, the old James Harden keeps rising, and Kevin Huerter stays hot.
There are six games on the NBA’s schedule Monday for hungry basketball bettors to dig into. That means there will be no shortage of options in the player prop market.
James Harden will continue to cook like his old self when the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Indiana Pacers. It could be another difficult scoring night for Dejounte Murray when the Atlanta Hawks take on the Miami Heat for a second straight game. And Kevin Huerter will let it fly against the New Orleans Pelicans.
Here are my best NBA player props for Monday, March 6.
NBA player props for March 6
Picks made on 3/6/2023 at 12:43 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
The Philadelphia 76ers finally look like they could take that next step as contenders in the Eastern Conference. They’re playing excellent basketball, and the team even ended the Milwaukee Bucks’ 16-game winning streak over the weekend.
A big reason for that has been James Harden’s play. The Sixers guard looks like the Harden of old, and the 33-year-old has been cooking. He’s averaging 25.6 points on 45.7% shooting over his last 10 games, which includes an awesome 45.6% from 3-point range. Harden is also adding 9.5 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game over that span, and the veteran should keep that production up when the Sixers visit the Indiana Pacers on Monday night.
The Pacers’ offense has been rolling, leading them to victories in three of their last four games. But the team’s defense is holding it back, as has been the case for most of the season.
Indiana ranks 23rd when it comes to defensive rating, and no squad in the NBA gives up more points per game to opposing guards than the Pacers. The club also struggles on the glass, ranking 28th in rebounding rate and 27th in opponent’s rebounds per game.
Harden’s points + rebounds prop is set at 29.5. He’s gone Over that number six times throughout the most recent 10-game stretch. The Over has also hit during his two previous meetings against Indiana in 2022-23.
James Harden prop: Over 29.5 points + rebounds (-105)
This is the second meeting between these two foes in as many games, with the Heat coming out on top 117-109 on Saturday.
The Heat stymied the Hawks during that contest. They were particularly tough on Atlanta’s star guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray, limiting them to a crazy low 5-for-27 shooting from the field (18.5%). And it could be another rough night for Murray when it comes to getting buckets on Monday.
Murray’s first season in Atlanta has basically mirrored his previous production. He’s Solid, but certainly not meeting expectations at this point.
The veteran is averaging 21 points per game while shooting 36.7% from 3-point range. And while he can pop off for significant games at times, it seems the Hawks are really relying on him to be a stopper defensively. And now he’s facing a defensively stout Miami team for the second straight night.
The Heat rank fifth in the NBA in defensive rating, and they allow the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing guards.
Murray is averaging 20.1 points per game over his last 10 contests, but he’s attempting almost two fewer shots outing game over that stretch. His point total for Monday’s matchup is set at 19.5. He’s landed Under that six times across his last 10 outings, and he’s been held to 13 points or fewer in two of his three matchups against the Heat in 2022-23.
Dejounte Murray prop: Under 19.5 points (-115)
Long distance love
The Kings are coming off a shootout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday, ending a five-game winning streak. And if they want to start a new run Monday against the Pels, the Kings may need to do so without one of their top players in De’Aaron Fox.
Sacramento’s All-Star point guard is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable to suit up. That could mean added opportunities for the Kings’ other shooters, and I’m looking at Kevin Huerter, who has been finding his shooting rhythm once again.
Huerter is shooting 39.7% from deep in 2022-23, and he’s draining 44.2% of his attempts from beyond the arc over his last eight games. The Kings shooting guard has sunk three-plus threes five times over that eight-game stretch, and he should get plenty of opportunities to do that once again on Monday.
The Pelicans’ opponent’s 3-point shooting percentage is one of the NBA’s best, and they allow the seventh-most 3-point attempts per game. They’ll be dealing with plenty of injuries on Monday too. Zion Williamson remains out, along with Jose Alvarado, Larry Nance Jr., and Josh Richardson, and Jonas Valanciunas is questionable.
Look for Huerter to take advantage and go Over 2.5 made threes at plus money.
Kevin Huerter prop: Over 2.5 3-pointers made (+105)