HomeHorse RacingScottish Grand National 2024 trends and stats for Ayr 3.35 on Saturday

Scottish Grand National 2024 trends and stats for Ayr 3.35 on Saturday

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A week on from Aintree, the Scottish Grand National takes centre stage as a bumper field of 26 runners and riders take their chance at Ayr.

Willie Mullins – in search of a maiden British Jump Trainers’ Championship – fires six darts at the marathon contest including Macdermott, Mr Incredible and Spanish Harlem.

Stay Away Fay – the 2023 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle winner – brings a touch of class to the contest at the top of the weights, while Eider hero Anglers Crag is attempting to make it a perfect five from five for the season.

Scottish Grand National odds can be found on the Paddy Power website and Paddy Power app, otherwise key trends from the last 10 renewals and a tip based off the big-race stats are below.

Scottish Grand National trends

AGE

A bit of youth appears to be key as eight of the last 10 winners of the Scottish Grand National were aged between seven and nine.

CHASE FORM

You want to look for a horse that has had five or more starts over fences as that’s a trend achieved by the last 10 winners, while nine of those achieved two or more victories over the larger obstacles.

COURSE FORM

Just five of the last 10 winners had previously run at Ayr and only two of those scored at the track.

DISTANCE FORM

Experience over staying trips is crucial as eight winners since 2013 boasted 11 previous runs over three miles or further – the same number that had three or more victories over the distance.

LAST TIME OUT

The last 10 winners bar Al Co (2014) were racing off a break of 14 to 56 days, while six of those finished within the top three on their previous outing.

 

ODDS

It is generally not a race for favourites as only four of the last 10 winners could be found in the top three in Paddy Power’s betting for the Scottish Grand National, although eight were available at 25/1 or shorter.

RATING

Every winner of the Scottish Grand National since 2013 has been rated 135 or higher.

SEASON FORM

A minimum of four runs for the campaign is necessary as the 10 most recent winners ticked that box, while nine of those had scored on at least one occasion.

WEIGHT

Nine of the last 10 winners carried between 10st 1lbs and 11st 10lbs, although the Rating trend would indicate that we need to look at horses saddled with 10st 5lbs or more.

Scottish Grand National 2024 trends verdict

Tommie Beau has emerged as a regional National specialist this season – winning the Durham and Southern races – and the Seamus Mullins-trained gelding is the only horse in the field that meets the most important trends on offer for the Scottish Grand National (those achieved by at least eight of the last 10 winners).

*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change

Saturday’s Racing Tips

Read More on the Scottish Grand National 2024

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