HomeHorse RacingTampa Bay Derby analysis: Pletcher is poised for 6th win

Tampa Bay Derby analysis: Pletcher is poised for 6th win

Date:

Related stories

Girls basketball | VHSL state tournament pairings are set

Girls basketball All quarterfinals are Tuesday Class 6 quarterfinals Woodson at Manchester,...

ATP Acapulco Day 1 Predictions Including Tommy Paul vs Jack Draper

The ATP Tour returns to a player-favorite spot of...

CIF NorCal basketball regionals 2024: Opening-round schedule

NorCal basketball regionals Boys Open Division Wednesday’s game No. 5 Modesto Christian (27-5)...

Four top-10 teams fall in the final women’s hoops Sunday of February

The final women's basketball Sunday of February proved that...
spot_imgspot_img

The Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby, which will be run Saturday, is the second of two official prep races at Tampa Bay Downs on the road to  Kentucky Derby 2023. The 1 1/16-mile race drew a full field of 12 3-year-olds who will compete for the 50-20-15-10-5 points that go to the top five finishers that are eligible.

Six horses in the Tampa Derby already have run on the Kentucky Derby trail, with four of them earning qualifying points. Only two horses are stakes winners. The field includes five horses from the Sam F. Davis (G3) which is the other points race at Tampa.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Tampa Bay Derby, which is scheduled as race 11 of 12 with post time set for 5:15 p.m. EST. Each horse is shown with morning-line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff, his sire, trainer, jockey, record and purse earnings.

1. Lord Miles, 10-1, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., Paco Lopez, 3: 1-0-1, $40,600. Lord Miles was a debut winner in November at Gulfstream Park going six furlongs with a closing move. He moved to stakes races and ran a close third in the Mucho Macho Man and then was sixth in the Holy Bull after an awkward start. Toss.

2. Classic Car Wash, 8-1, Noble Bird, Mark Casse, Emisael Jaramillo, 4: 2-0-1, $83,550. Classic Car Wash broke his maiden in his second start in a $50,000 claimer at Gulfstream by more than eight lengths. His next start, which came as a 3-year-old, was a front-end victory in an allowance for Florida-breds going two turns on the Tapeta track. Last month he rallied from 10th to finish third in the Sam F. Davis. Use underneath.

3. Classic Legacy, 6-1, Into Mischief, Bill Mott, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4: 1-1-0, $79,950, Classic Legacy is a half-brother of the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) winner Art Collector. It took him three starts to break his maiden on a sloppy Aqueduct track going seven furlongs as the odds-on favorite after pressing the pace. He was fourth in the Sam F. Davis (G3) with a late run from ninth. Use underneath.

4. Groveland, 8-1, Street Sense, Eoin Harty, Daniel Centeno, 5: 1-2-2, $67,110. Groveland broke his maiden by a neck in his third start, which came at Tampa when he stretched out to a two turns with a pace-pressing trip. He then was second in an allowance that was won by Prairie Hawk. At odds of 21-1 Groveland was second in the Sam F. Davis after again pressing the pace. Use underneath.

5. Mikey Bananas, 20-1, Constitution, Tim Hamm, Pablo Morales, 7: 1-2-2, $43,483. Mikey Bananas was an early 2-year-old starter at Presque Isle when he ran second on the Tapeta track. In June he got his maiden victory after setting the pace against a field of 10. He went to Woodbine for an early stakes race and finished fifth and then was last in the Juvenile at Kentucky Downs going a mile. As a 3-year-old, Mikey Bananas ran in three Tampa allowances, finishing third twice and then second. Toss.

6. Tapit Trice, 8-5, Tapit, Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez, 3: 2-0-1, $100,150. Tapit Trice is a developing 3-year-old from the barn of Todd Pletcher who made his debut in November going a mile at Aqueduct and finishing third. A month later he broke his maiden with another closing move to get up by a neck. The son of Tapit went to Florida and was an allowance winner by eight lengths from a stalking position. He could make the next step forward onto the Kentucky Derby trail in this race, which his trainer has won five times. Longer distances should be to his liking with Tapit as his sire, and his dam was a multiple stakes winner going long. Top choice.

7. Freedom Road, 20-1, Malibu Moon, Gregg Sacco, Hector Diaz, 5: 2-1-1, $79,600. Freedom Road broke his maiden in his first start at Monmouth Park in July with a late rally. He then tried a pair of stakes at Monmouth and Laurel, finishing fifth and third. Freedom Road won a six-furlong allowance at Tampa in January with a closing move in his only start of this year. Toss.

8. Dreaming of Kona, 20-1, Curlin, Aldana Spieth, Scott Spieth, 4: 2-0-0, $30,700. Dreaming of Kona won at first asking in October on the Tapeta at Presque Isle by more than nine lengths while running on the lead the entire race. He moved to stakes company in Florida with a third in the Inaugural at Tampa, was moved to first by disqualification in the Mucho Macho Man and then was seventh in the Sam F. Davis. Toss.

9. Shesterkin, 10-1, Violence, Todd Pletcher, Edgard Zayas, 2: 1-1-0, $57,840. Shesterkin is by the hot young sire Violence, whose son Forte is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. His dam was a graded-stakes winner going long, and all five of her starters found the winner’s circle. He was first in his Dec. 31 debut with a front-running effort going seven furlongs. Shesterkin finished second in an allowance last month behind his stablemate Tapit Trice, and now he will make his first start in a stakes race on the Derby trail. Live long shot.

10. Champions Dream. 15-1, Justify, Mark Casse, Antonio Gallardo, 5: 2-1-1, $170,250. Champions Dream, a supplemental nomination into the Tampa Derby, is one of only two stakes winners in this field. He also is the only graded-stakes winner, with a victory in the Nashua (G3) at Aqueduct in November. He won his first start at Saratoga as the favorite in a field of 10 with a front-end effort going seven furlongs. He ran in four stakes since then with a fifth in the Champagne, a second in the Pasco and an 11th in the Sam F. Davis, where he was eased in the stretch. Champions Dream had one workout since the Davis. Toss.


11. Zydeceaux
, 20-1, Cajun Breeze, Ramon Minguet, Samuel Marin, 6: 3-1-1, $159,540. Zydeceaux is the second stakes winner in the field having won the seven-furlong Pasco at Tampa in January while racing on the lead. He then stretched out to two turns in the Sam F. Davis, where he set the pace but faded badly to fifth. Toss.

12. Prairie Hawk, 20-1, Curlin, Saffie Joseph Jr., Samy Camacho, 4: 2-0-0, $30,700. From the barn of Saffie Joseph Jr., Prairie Hawk made all four of his starts in Florida. He broke his maiden at Tampa in his second start going two turns in December and followed that with a front-end allowance victory, also at Tampa. In the Sam F. Davis, he broke slowly and was not able to get into contention, ending up a distant ninth. Toss.

Summary: Because only two horses in the Tampa Derby are stakes winners, it is hard to have much confidence in most of the horses in this field.

Todd Pletcher won this race five times in the past and in 2010 Super Saver finished third on his way to the trainer’s first Kentucky Derby victory. Pletcher has Tapit Trice and Shesterkin in the race, and both are inexperienced. But they both have strong pedigrees and showed talent thus far. One of them will move forward and win the Tampa Bay Derby.

Post Silks Horse / Sire Rating Trainer / Jockey Last Start / Next Start HRN
1 Lord Miles

Curlin

5.56

Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.

Paco Lopez

6th, 2023 Holy Bull G3

Entered

Last Race

6th, 2023 Holy Bull G3

2 Horse Silk Classic Car Wash Classic Car Wash

Noble Bird

3.79

Mark E. Casse

Emisael Jaramillo

3rd, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

3rd, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

3 Horse Silk Classic Legacy Classic Legacy

Into Mischief

6.15

William I. Mott

Irad Ortiz, Jr.

4th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

4th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

4 Horse Silk Groveland Groveland

Street Sense

3.79

Eoin G. Harty

Daniel E. Centeno

2nd, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

2nd, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

5 Horse Silk Mikey Bananas Mikey Bananas

Constitution

3.79

Timothy E. Hamm

Pablo Morales

2nd, Tam AlwOC (2/12/23-R6)

Entered

Last Race

2nd, Tam AlwOC (2/12/23-R6)

6 Horse Silk Tapit Trice Tapit Trice

Tapit

6.70

Todd A. Pletcher

Luis Saez

1st, GP AlwOC (2/4/23-R8)

Entered

Last Race

1st, GP AlwOC (2/4/23-R8)

7 Horse Silk Freedom Road Freedom Road

Malibu Moon

4.45

Gregory D. Sacco

Hector M. Diaz

1st, Tam AlwOC (1/21/23-R8)

Entered

Last Race

1st, Tam AlwOC (1/21/23-R8)

8 Horse Silk Dreaming Of Kona Dreaming Of Kona

Fast Anna

6.07

Aldana Spieth

Scott Spieth

7th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

7th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

9 Horse Silk Shesterkin Shesterkin

Violence

6.59

Todd A. Pletcher

Edgard J. Zayas

2nd, GP AlwOC (2/4/23-R8)

Entered

Last Race

2nd, GP AlwOC (2/4/23-R8)

10 Horse Silk Champions Dream Champions Dream

Justify

6.05

Mark E. Casse

Antonio A. Gallardo

11th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

11th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

11 Horse Silk Zydeceaux Zydeceaux

Cajun Breeze

4.34

Ramon Minguet

Samuel Marin

5th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

5th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

12 Horse Silk Prairie Hawk Prairie Hawk

Curlin

5.23

Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.

Samy Camacho

9th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

Entered

Last Race

9th, 2023 Sam F. Davis G3

- Never miss a story with notifications

- Gain full access to our premium content

- Browse free from up to 5 devices at once

Latest stories

spot_img

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here