HomeNBAThunder vs Suns Odds & Picks (Mar. 8)

Thunder vs Suns Odds & Picks (Mar. 8)

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Kevin Durant holding the ball out with one hand

Mar 5, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant (35) grabs a rebound against the Dallas Mavericks during the second half at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Phoenix Suns are massive 12.5-point favorites when they host the OKC Thunder Wednesday night
  • Thunder all-star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (load management) will not play
  • Read below for the Thunder vs Suns odds and predictions

Here come the Suns.

With the middling part of their season behind them, the Phoenix Suns (36-29, 21-10 home) are scorching, reeling off 15 wins in their last 20, and three straight since a franchise-altering trade that landed them Kevin Durant.

KD makes his home debut as Phoenix hosts the Oklahoma City Thunder (31-34, 11-19 away), a team that’s reeled off three straight wins.

However, they’ll be playing the second night of a back-to-back, and OKC will be sitting star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (load management), while Jalen Williams (wrist), is also out.

Action gets underway Wednesday (March 8) at 9pm ET from the Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ. You can watch the game live on NBA League Pass.

Thunder vs Suns Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma City Thunder +12.5 (-110) +575 Ov 234 (-110)
Phoenix Suns -12.5 (-110) -800 Un 234 (-110)

The NBA odds have the Suns as massive 12.5-point favorites and -800 on the moneyline, an implied winning probability of 88.89%. The game features a total of 234.

Phoenix currently sits in fourth in the West’s NBA Playoff Bracket, 2.5 games back of both the SacTo Kings and Memphis Grizzlies. They are 21-10 at home on the season, and 17-13-1 against the spread at Footprint.

OKC is just outside the play-in at 11th, though with identical records as the 10th-place Pelicans, and just a half-game back of the 9th-place LA Lakers. They’re 11-19 on the road, but a sparkling 17-10-3 ATS, the second-best road-success betting rate in the NBA this season.

Odds as of Mar 7 at DraftKings

Oklahoma City Betting Analysis

After back-to-back wins over the Jazz, OKC kept the good times rolling with a 137-128 win over the road-awful Golden State Warriors.

Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 33 points, adding six dimes and two steals. Josh Giddey was a spectacular wing man, going for 17 points, 17 assists and 11 rebounds, as all five Thunder starters scored in double figures, and seven overall.

The Thunder forced 21 GState turnovers, no surprise as they lead the league, forcing 17.1 per contest. They’re second in the NBA in points off turnovers, putting up 20.7 points per game.

OKC is also top-five in fewest turnovers per game (13.3), holding opponents to just 14.8 points — the best mark in the NBA. In a game where SGA sits, this could be the key category that can keep them in the game.

They’re the no. 2 team in scoring, putting up 118.4 points per game. Outside the top 10 in both field goal and three-point shooting. it’s those extra possessions via turnover that allow them to shoot 92.9 field goals per game, the highest volume in the league.

Phoenix Betting Analysis

In just a short period of time, we have already seen just how devastating the Durant-Devin Booker combination can be. It’s a big reason why Phoenix has climbed to third in the 2023 NBA Championship odds. Only Boston and Milwaukee have shorter numbers.

The Suns  were dominant in a 130-126 win over the Mavericks to close out their road trip, with Durant leading the way with 37 points, seven boards and three assists. Book was right with him, pouring in 36 points, 10 assists and five rebounds.

KD is his same unstoppable self, averaging 26.7 points on 69% shooting with his new club in three games. Booker continues to shine in the Valley: he’s averaged 36 points of 56% shooting playing alongside his new, all-world teammate.

Though we’re looking at a small sample, Phoenix is putting up 120 points per game on 50.8% shooting from the field, and 38.7% from distance since acquiring Durant from Brooklyn.

The Suns haven’t had to just rely on outscoring the opposition like they did against Dallas: they’re only allowing 107 points per game with KD, holding teams to 44% shooting from the field, and 33% from beyond the arc.

Thunder vs Suns Betting Prediction

This is the second of four head-to-head meetings this year with Phoenix winning the first game 124-115. Gilgeous-Alexander was out and Jalen Williams had 22 points, six rebounds and four assists. Booker led Phoenix with 25 points and eight rebounds.

Oklahoma will be playing their 10th back-to-back this year, going 4-4-1 ATS in their previous nine.

The Suns have been a good bet against lesser foes, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs teams with a losing record.

Even with the emotional high of Durant debuting in the Valley, OKC can hang without SGA. In fact, in the prior five games he missed before playing the last two, the Thunder went 1-4, but didn’t lose a game by double-digits.

They’re also 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Let’s bank on OKC’s resiliency here and take the dozen+ points.

Pick: 

  • Thunder +12.5 (-110); 1 unit to win 0.91 units
  • NBA Betting Record: 32-30-1 ATS, 1-2 ML, 7-0 o/u, 0-3 parlays; -9.65 units

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