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Warriors vs Thunder NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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Klay Thompson’s history against the Thunder franchise is both storied and impressive. He exploded for 42 points in a matchup earlier this season and looks like a great bet to soar Over his point total again tonight — read more below.

It doesn’t get much better than Steph Curry and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander going shot-for-shot in a scoring duel – and there should be more offensive fireworks on deck as the Golden State Warriors visit the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Warriors welcomed Curry back at the weekend after an 11-game absence with a knee injury, but it wasn’t enough to boost Golden State’s woeful road record – now 7-24 overall after Sunday’s loss to the Lakers in L.A. 

Gilgeous-Alexander has had a five-game injury layoff of his own and returned in Sunday’s win over the Utah Jazz, scoring 38 points for an OKC team that’s still hanging around the play-in conversation.

Find out more in our free Warriors vs Thunder NBA picks and predictions for tonight’s matchup.

Warriors vs Thunder best odds

Warriors vs Thunder picks and predictions

There’s something about the Oklahoma City Thunder that brings out the best in Klay Thompson, dating back to the start of the “Game 6 Klay” moniker in the 2016 Western Conference Finals where he saved the Golden State Warriors from elimination with 41 points and 11 3-pointers in this same arena.

He went one better earlier this season – pouring in 12 triples in a 42-point night against OKC in early February to carry a Curry-less Golden State to a blowout win at Chase Center. So there’s every reason to expect another big night from Thompson here, even with Curry chipping away at some of his field goal attempts.

If anything, Curry’s return is a boost for Thompson, who benefits from his teammate’s ability to bend defenses and create cleaner looks for everyone else. There’s a roadmap to double-digit attempts from behind the arc again for Thompson tonight – and he’s now up to 41% this season on triples.

With Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton II unavailable, the Warriors will be counting on Thompson to shoulder a heavy load with the SGA assignment too, but that often brings out the best in the Warriors star, who has been such a key defensive stopper in Golden State’s title runs.

I’m counting on Thompson to once again find top gear here against the Thunder and ease to the Over on this points prop.

My best bet: Klay Thompson Over 23.5 points (-108)

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Warriors vs Thunder spread analysis

The Warriors’ wretched form away from Chase Center isn’t enough for the NBA odds to give Steve Kerr’s men the underdog tag here, even against a young, fearless Thunder capable of dropping 130 points on any given night.

There’s no denying the defending champs’ talent, but the script has become all too familiar – they picked up five straight home wins before another road loss at the weekend. It’s still inexplicable that this roster has managed only seven road wins so far this season.   

Against that backdrop, laying four points with Golden State here might seem like a lot, but keep in mind that the Warriors have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning the last eight meetings and landing a 141-114 victory when the teams squared off in February.

Still, the Thunder are 19-15 at home this season (and 37-24-3 ATS overall) and are playing with house money in a year where they’ve shown they’re ahead of schedule. Back-to-back wins over the Jazz have put Mark Daigneault’s men back on track after a five-game skid post-All-Star Weekend.

I expect the hosts to be up for this game after being handed such a heavy loss the last time these teams faced each other.

Warriors vs Thunder Over/Under analysis

With Curry, Thompson, and Gilgeous-Alexander sharing the floor, no one should be surprised if this turns into a shootout. That’s been the Thunder’s MO lately – the Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games, even with SGA in street clothes for most of those, as Josh Giddey kept the offense humming.

The issues came on the defensive end, with the Thunder giving up 120 points or more in each of their five consecutive losses coming out of the All-Star break. SGA’s return should help there – as a defender and as a bucket-getter who allows OKC to set its halfcourt defense.

The Warriors have trended the other way, with the Under hitting in their last seven games. Of course, Curry’s absence was a huge reason for that – and he provided a spark on his return at the weekend, scoring 27 points despite slightly rusty 8-for-20 shooting.

The line has been jacked up in anticipation of a total close to the February matchup (which served up 255 points), and Golden State’s defense didn’t exactly inspire confidence on Sunday as Anthony Davis got the better of Draymond Green and Kevon Looney on the way to 39 points. 

Warriors vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Curry-Thompson-Green-era Warriors have had OKC’s number. Not only has Golden State won the last eight matchups, but they’re also 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Thunder.

Warriors vs Thunder game info

Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Date: Tuesday, March 7, 2023
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS Bay Area, Bally Sports Oklahoma

Warriors vs Thunder key injuries

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